EM monthly - Latin America makes the “Right Turn”

October 16, 2026

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Over the past three years, Latin America has witnessed a remarkable political realignment. Some would call it a U-turn; it is undoubtedly a shift to the right. The first domino fell in late 2023, when Argentine voters rejected the Peronist establishment, electing Javier Milei over Sergio Massa, economy minister in Alberto Fernández's government. The trend soon spread. Ecuador twice chose Daniel Noboa over Rafael Correa's movement, and Bolivia elected Rodrigo Paz, ending more than 20 years of MAS rule. Chile and Honduras followed in late 2025. In 2026, Peru elected Keiko Fujimori by the narrowest of margins and Colombia chose right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella against all pollsters’ predictions. Now, most significantly, Brazil looks set to follow: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47.0% to President Lula's 45.2%, and the right swept Congress.

A new policy DNA

For investors, this is good news, as the underlying philosophy of government, its "DNA", is shifting away from the social left and towards the right, which typically means a more conservative, orthodox and predictable approach to government management. While initiatives and policies tend to favour business, are market-friendly and reward merit. All of this is music to investors' ears.

In practice, this tends to bring greater fiscal discipline, with right-of-centre platforms usually prioritising primary surpluses, spending rules and debt stabilisation. A second pillar is less government interference and greater respect for the autonomy of key institutions, with central bank independence and a clear mandate being core principles.

At the company level, deregulation, labour-market reform, and lower corporate taxes can support stronger earnings. From an international investment perspective, a stronger emphasis on the rule of law and property rights provides greater contract certainty and reduces expropriation and regulatory risk, particularly important for long-duration infrastructure and energy investments.

Together, these pillars can set off a virtuous cycle. Credible fiscal policy, trusted independent institutions and the rule of law lower risk premia and attract foreign direct investment. Capital inflows strengthen the currency, which dampens inflation and allows the central bank to cut its policy rate. Cheaper and more readily available funding then revives investment, the engine of economic growth. Stronger growth and a stabilising debt burden improve sovereign credit metrics, opening the door to rating upgrades that lower borrowing costs further and widen the investor base. In the most optimistic scenario, the cycle becomes self-reinforcing (Figure 1).

Figure 1 – Brazil’s virtuous investment cycle

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

Source: Bloomberg, as of 9th October 2026. Daily data from 13th August 2026, indexed to 100 at start. BRL = Brazilian real against the US dollar, rebased so a rise shows appreciation. 5Y CDS = Brazil 5-year USD sovereign credit default swap spread; a fall shows tightening. For illustrative purposes only.

Virtuous investment cycle

A further advantage, particularly under the current US administration, is closer alignment with Washington, which should not be underestimated at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. The US still plays the dominant role in shaping global politics, trade and security: it remains the world's policeman, its lender of last resort and its de facto financial regulator. Several of the region's new leaders, including Milei (Argentina), Asfura (Honduras), de la Espriella (Colombia) and Bolsonaro (Brazil) are close to Washington, and that has already brought tangible support, most notably the US financial backstop for Argentina in 2025. Nor is this support for friends limited to emerging markets. In July 2026 the US joined Japan in the first joint intervention to support the yen since 1998, lifting the currency from a four-decade low, and gave the Bank of Japan access to up to US$60bn through the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility.

Brazil looks set to follow

Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's first round on 4 October 2026 with 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for Lula, roughly 56 million votes to 54 million, a lead that no major poll average had predicted. He enters the 25 October runoff as a clear favourite, with prediction markets pricing greater than 80% odds of victory. History is on his side. Since 1989, the first direct presidential election after military rule, the first-round leader has won every Brazilian runoff. Furthermore, Lula's weakest first-round showing in more than two decades, while Flávio narrowed the Bolsonaro–Lula margin relative to 2022 in every state except the Federal District, suggests support for the right is structural rather than simply anti-Lula.

The congressional result may matter as much as the presidency, because it will determine how much of either candidate’s programme becomes law. As things now stand, the right-leaning parties have had their strongest showing in decades. In the Senate, Bolsonaro’s Partido Liberal roughly doubled its caucus to 29 of 81 seats, making it by far the largest party. Estimates suggest that the right’s overall share of seats rose from 46.9% to 63%. In the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, projections indicated that 292 seats would go to right-leaning deputies. Because a debt-anchored fiscal rule requires only ordinary legislation, this Congress would make Flávio’s core fiscal agenda passable (Figure 2).

This should allow Flávio to execute his playbook, which proposes the clearest market-oriented shift including a debt-anchored fiscal rule, cutting at least ten ministries, limiting subsidised credit and restarting privatisations.

Figure 2 – Both Senate and House shift to the right

Share of seats by political orientation; Senate 81 seats, Chamber of Deputies 513 seats. "Right of centre" = centre-right plus right. Source: Superior Electoral Court, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, as of October 2026. For illustrative purposes only.

The right place, at the right time

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins on 25 October, South America’s five largest economies (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Peru) will all be governed from the right, leaving Mexico as the region’s main left-of-centre government. That is the most market-friendly political map Latin America has had in over a decade, yet the shift has happened quickly and has gone largely unnoticed by global investors.

That creates an opportunity, with several forces now working in the region’s favour. Political direction points towards orthodox, market-friendly policy. Governments aligned with Washington can count on US support, and in some cases an explicit backstop, at a time when the parts of the world sit in the administration’s bad books. Latin America also offers genuine diversification: it is a commodity powerhouse in energy, metals and food, geographically removed from conflict in the Middle East, and so positioned to benefit from both higher prices and stronger demand when supply elsewhere is disrupted. Under-owned, increasingly market-friendly and strategically well placed, Latin America once again looks like the right place, at the right time, to invest.

EM look back – September

• September offered fixed income investors no place to hide. Markets came to terms with the reality that central banks are not merely fine-tuning policy but embarking on a full-blown hiking cycle, with 100bps or more of tightening now expected. Higher rates threaten to deepen the fiscal strain on governments through rising interest costs, while the AI boom has emerged as an unexpected competitor for capital, crowding sovereigns that are already hungry for funding. Yield curves bear-flattened, with the US underperforming as both 5- and 10-year yields rose by more than 50bps. Credit spreads widened across the board, most aggressively in high yield.
• In emerging markets, corporate credit outperformed sovereigns on both total return and spread performance. The sovereign index suffered a larger drawdown, reflecting both its longer duration and sharper spread widening relative to corporates. Across high yield and investment grade, the drivers of underperformance differed but the outcome was similar: high yield was hit by more aggressive spread widening, while investment grade suffered more from rising government yields, leaving both buckets with comparable drawdowns. Short-duration strategies, by contrast, were the best-performing area of fixed income, as their limited rate sensitivity cushioned them from the sell-off.
• Asia credit was the best-performing region across both investment grade and high yield, with smaller drawdowns and less spread widening than other regions. It was supported by strong regional technicals, as net supply remains negative. Latin America, by contrast, was held back by its longer duration profile as US Treasury yields moved higher. At the sector level, commodity-linked sectors such as energy and basic materials outperformed, while homebuilders and transportation underperformed amid rising interest rates and energy prices.
• September supply totalled US$47.7 billion, well below the historical average for the month, bringing year-to-date issuance to US$412.7 billion, slightly ahead of last year's pace. Investment-grade financials were the largest contributor, printing US$21.9 billion, and the IG/HY split was 75%/25%. By region, Asia led with US$18.4 billion, though this was well short of the US$24 billion issued last September; Korea accounted for the lion's share at US$9 billion. Other regional leaders were Hungary in Europe, Mexico in Latin America and Israel in the Middle East.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

Market Data

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

Source: ICE data platform. as of 30th September 2026. EMGB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index EMCB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index,  EMIB - ICE BofA High Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHB - ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, Q690 - ICE BofA Custom Emerging Markets Short Duration Index, EMRA - ICE BofA Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIA - ICE BofA High Grade Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHA - ICE BofA High Yield Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index , EMRL - ICE BofA Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIL - The ICE BofA High Grade Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Index, EMHL - ICE BofA High Yield Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus, EMRE - ICE BofA EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIE - ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHE - ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index,. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in the index. Indices selected provide best proxy for highlighting performance of emerging market corporate bonds. For illustrative purposes only. 

Source: ICE data platform. as of 30th September 2026. EMGB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index EMCB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index,  EMIB - ICE BofA High Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHB - ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, Q690 - ICE BofA Custom Emerging Markets Short Duration Index, EMRA - ICE BofA Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIA - ICE BofA High Grade Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHA - ICE BofA High Yield Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index , EMRL - ICE BofA Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIL - The ICE BofA High Grade Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Index, EMHL - ICE BofA High Yield Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus, EMRE - ICE BofA EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIE - ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHE - ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index,. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in the index. Indices selected provide best proxy for highlighting performance of emerging market corporate bonds. For illustrative purposes only. 

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Index descriptions

EMGB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index tracks the performance of US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets.  Qualifying securities must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX-G10, all Western European countries and territories of the US and Western European countries.

EMCB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index tracks the performance of the US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets. Qualifying issuers must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX G10, all Western European countries, and territories of the US and Western European countries.

EMIB - ICE BofA High Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA ML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (EMCB) including all securities rated AAA through BBB3, inclusive.

EMHB - ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA ML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (EMCB) including all securities rated BB1 or lower.

Q690 - ICE BofA Custom Emerging Markets Short Duration Index tracks the performance of short-term US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets.

EMRA - ICE BofA Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is the subset of the ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which includes only securities issued by countries associated with the region of Asia, excluding Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

EMHA – The ICE BofA High Yield Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BB1 and lower with a country of risk within the Asia region.

EMIA -  The ICE BofA High Grade Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Asia region.

EMRL - ICE BofA Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of The ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities issued by countries associated with the geographical region of Latin America.

EMIL - The ICE BofA High Grade Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Latin America region.

EMHL - ICE BofA High Yield Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated sub-investment grade based on the average of Moody's, S&P and Fitch, and with a country of risk associated with the geographical region of Latin America.

EMRE - ICE BofA EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of The ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities issued by countries associated with the geographical region of Europe, the Middle East and Africa including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

EMIE - ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

EMHE - ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

The MSCI EM Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across emerging market countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalisation in each country.

LDMP - ICE BofA Local Debt Markets Plus Index is designed to track the performance of emerging markets sovereign debt publicly issued and denominated in the issuer's own currency.

J0A0 - The ICE BofA ML US Cash Pay High Yield Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt, currently in a coupon paying period that is publicly issued in the US domestic market.

J0A1 – The ICE BofA  BB US Cash Pay High Yield Index is a subset of the ICE BofA  US Cash Pay High Yield Index (J0A0) including all securities rated BB1 through BB3, inclusive.

C0C0A0 - The ICE BofA ML US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

HE00 - The ICE BofA ML Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of EUR dominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets.

ER00 – The ICE BofA ML Euro Corporate Index tracks the performance of EUR denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the eurobond or Euro member domestic markets.

ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus India Issuers Index (EINH) - is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index

ADHY - ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Index tracks the performance of sub-investment grade U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers.

ICE BofA BB Asian Dollar High Yield Index (ACH1) ICE BofA BB Asian Dollar High Yield Index is a subset of ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate Index including all securities rated BB1 through BB3, inclusive.

ADIG -  ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Index tracks the performance of investment grade U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers. Qualifying securities have a country of risk classified as an Emerging Markets country that is part of the Asia/Pacific Region.

CEMBI Broad Div. Index - The JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index (CEMBIB Div) is a benchmark that tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated, fixed and floating-rate debt instruments issued by emerging market corporate entities.

JESG CEMBI Broad Div. Index - The JP Morgan ESG CEMBI Broad Diversified Custom Maturity Index tracks liquid, US Dollar denominated emerging market fixed and floating-rate debt instruments issued by corporates.

EM3B – ICE BofA BB Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including ass securities rated BB1 through BB3, inclusive.

EMCS – ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Consumer Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Non-Cyclical issuers.

EMEN – ICE BofA Emerging Market Corporate Plus Energy Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Energy issuers.

EMRB – ICE BofA Emerging Market Corporate plus Real Estate, Building & Hotels Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Real Easte, Building & Construction, or Hotels.

EMCG – ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Capital Goods Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Capital Goods Issuers.

EMSD – ICE BofA Emerging Markets Diversified Corporate Index tracks the performance of USD dollar denominated emerging markets corporate senior and secured debt publicly issued in the US domestic and eurobond markets.

EMTM – ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Media & Telecommunications Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus index including all securities of media and telecommunications issuers.

EM2B – ICE BofA BBB Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Market Corporate Plus index including all securities rated BBB1 through BBB3, inclusive.

EMUT – the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Utility Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Utility issuers.

EMPB – ICE BofA Public Sector Issuers Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of The BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all quasi-government securities as well as debt of corporate issuers deemed to be government owned or controlled.

ACIG – ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Corporate Index tracks the performance of investment grade US dollar denominated securities issued by Asian corporate issuers in the US domestic and eurobonds market. Qualyfying securities have a country of risk associated with Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, John Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

EMAB – Ice BofA Automotive & Basic Industry Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index.

EMHE - The ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

EMNS – The ICE BofA Non-Financial Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index excluding all financial securities as well as debt of corporate issuers designated as government owned or controlled by ICE BofA emerging markets credit research.

EM1B – the ICE BofA AAA-A Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Market Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated AAA through A3, inclusive.

including all securities with India as the country of risk that are rated sub-investment grade based on average of Moody's, S&P and Fitch

ADOL -The ICE BofA Asian Dollar Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers.

ICE BofA China Corporate Index (CN0C) ICE BofA China Corporate Index tracks the performance of CNY denominated corporate debt issued in the Chinese domestic bond market. Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to final maturity, at least 18 months to final maturity at point of issuance, a fixed coupon schedule and a minimum amount outstanding of CNY 500 million. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Contingent capital securities (“cocos”) are excluded, but capital securities where conversion can be mandated by a regulatory authority, but which have no specified trigger, are included. Other hybrid capital securities, such as those issues that potentially convert into preference shares, those with both cumulative and non-cumulative coupon deferral provisions, and those with alternative coupon satisfaction mechanisms, are also included in the index. Securities in legal default are excluded from the Index.

ICE BofA Investment Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus China Issuers Index (ECNI) ICE BofA Investment Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus China Issuers Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities with China as the country of risk that are rated investment grade based on average of Moody's, S&P and Fitch. EMFN – EM Corporate Plus Financial is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of financial issuers.

EMIE - The ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

EM4B – ICE BofA B & Lower Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index.

EMRT – ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Transportation Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities of Transportation issuers other than airlines or railroads.

GSFCI - The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is a measure that assesses the overall financial conditions in the economy, taking into account various factors such as interest rates, credit spreads, and equity prices.

ICE BofA B Asian Dollar High Yield Index (ACH2) ICE BofA B Asian Dollar High Yield Index is a subset of ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate Index including all securities rated B1 through B3, inclusive.

ICE BofA Single-B US Cash Pay High Yield Index (J0A2) ICE BofA Single-B US Cash Pay High Yield Index is a subset of ICE BofA US Cash Pay High Yield Index including all securities rated B1 through B3, inclusive.

You cannot invest directly in an index, which also does not take into account trading commissions or costs. Additionally, indices do not include reinvestment of dividends, and the volatility of indices may be materially different over time.

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