EM Monthly: Pole position: The rise of Asia’s EV industry

May 9, 2025

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As the world moves forward on alternative energy sources, Asia is emerging as the frontrunner for electric vehicle production. Mel Siew and Warren Hyland assess the implications for global competition, credit markets and the future of transportation.

The concept of battery-powered vehicles dates back to the early nineteenth century, with innovations from the UK, Europe and America. However, the launch of the gasoline-powered Model T Ford in the US in 1908 eclipsed any further advancements of electric vehicles (EVs) for nearly a century, until Toyota’s worldwide launch of the hybrid Toyota Prius in 2000 and Tesla Motor’s luxury sports car in 2006.

Today, spurred by subsidies, improving affordability and shifting consumer preferences, EV sales have grown steadily; in 2024, over 1 in every 5 vehicles sold globally were electric.¹ In China, the world’s largest car market for over a decade, EVs accounted for almost 1 in every 2 new passenger cars sold last year, representing around two-thirds of all EVs sold globally.²

What began as a Western, gasoline-fuelled industry is morphing into one driven and powered by Asia.

Risk: Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.

Figure 2: EV share of new passenger vehicle sales

Source: Bloomberg NEF, Electric Vehicle Market Outlook Q1 2025. For illustrative purposes only

China’s electric surge

Tesla has been a long-time leader in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Yet the firm’s dominance is under threat from Chinese competitors, which benefit from a supply chain capable of similar innovation and scale. China already leads in the production of raw materials (lithium, cobalt) and accounts for 75% of global lithium-ion battery production.³

Indeed, given the region’s long-term investment in production and domination of the supply chain, today’s EV batteries are manufactured almost exclusively in Asia. The top 10 companies in the industry account for almost 90% of the global market and are domiciled in China, South Korea and Japan (Figure 3). While the composition of the leaderboard has changed over time, no company from outside these 3 countries has featured in the top 10.

Figure 3: Top 10 global battery suppliers

By country of origin and 2018-Nov 2024 installations

Blue = China, Yellow = Japan, Purple = Korea

*LGES was spun-off from LG Chem in 2020

**SK on was spun off from SK Innovation in 2021

^AESC, a Japanese company, was acquired by China's Envision Energy International Limited in 2018.

1.Fitch Ratings report “Asian Battery Manufacturers” published August 29th, 2022. 2. CATL Hong Kong stock exchange listing application published February 11th, 2025. For illustrative purposes only.

With EV sales expected to continue to grow, Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) appear to have an advantage from a large domestic market that has allowed them to achieve economies of scale. As other OEMs look to defend market share with their own EVs, and given current US-China tensions, Korean and Japanese EV battery producers could have an opportunity to grow their market share.

Korean EV battery producers LG Energy Solutions⁴ and SK On⁵ recently announced billions of dollars of investment for new production facilities in the US and Europe, backed by orders from OEMs.

China has a solid and well-supplied manufacturing process that is underpinned by the government,³ while the supply chain ecosystem has lowered barriers to entry for new companies. In 2021, Xiaomi, a consumer electronics manufacturer better known for mobile handsets, announced its intention to enter the EV market. After deliveries of its SU7 sedan began in April 2024, over 130,000 vehicles were delivered last year⁶ and 350,000 deliveries are targeted for 2025.⁷

Additionally, innovation is happening quickly. In recent weeks, OEM BYD Auto⁸ and equipment supplier CATL⁹ have announced EV battery charging times equivalent to the time spent at a gasoline station filling up an internal combustion engine vehicle. And the release of DeepSeek saw all leading Chinese manufacturers announce they would be integrating the open-source AI into their vehicles.¹⁰

China’s EV sector has taken off so much that China’s BYD eclipsed Tesla’s annual car sales in 2024.¹¹ When factoring in hybrids, BYD was the third-highest selling brand globally, after Toyota and Volkswagen.¹²

Given their domestic success, Chinese auto OEMs are turning to international markets for expansion. However, this led to defensive responses from the US under the Biden administration and from the European Union (EU), in the form of tariffs on Chinese-built BEVs.

While the 100% US tariff on Chinese built BEVs was largely symbolic given negligible US sales, the EU tariff varied by brand to a maximum of 45.3%. However, EU tariffs have failed to dent the rise of Chinese EV sales in the region, although the product mix is tilted towards plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs).¹³

In response to the challenge from Tesla at the high end and from Chinese OEMs at the more affordable end, US and European OEMs have ramped up their EV offerings, with many committing to an all-electric product range by 2030. ¹⁴

Asia takes the lead

Looking at broader auto sales, more new cars are sold in emerging markets (EM) than in the US or Europe.¹⁵ We believe this is likely to continue as low car ownership, combined with economic growth, should see sales in markets such as India, South-East Asia, China and Brazil outpace the global average for the foreseeable future.¹⁶

EV sales in EM should also benefit from ongoing improvements in battery technology. That is certainly the case in South-East Asia, where EV sales penetration in 2024 was as high as 34% in Singapore and 25% in Vietnam.¹⁷

Charging returns

The auto sector is under-represented in the EM credit universe, reflecting the US and European heritage of established OEMs and their suppliers. Autos represent just 3% of the US credit universe, 5% of European investment grade and 9% of European high yield.¹⁸ This contrasts with 2% in Asian investment grade and just 1.2% in the broader EM universe,¹⁹ with half of that index weight represented by EV battery producers, a sector unique to Asia and EM.

However, given rapid growth, Asia’s EV producers are increasingly turning to the corporate bond market to finance plans to increase manufacturing capacity alongside research and development. This should enable credit investors to participate in a long-term secular growth trend, part of the broader global decarbonization story.

For those with environmental, social and governance (ESG) and/or green mandates, an allocation into EV bonds can also help investors transition to greener, more sustainable strategies. Issuance from EVs is often in the form of green bonds.

In addition, the lack of representation of EVs in global credit indices offers bottom-up investors the chance to identify mispriced opportunities and benefit from a spread pick-up versus developed market peers. Given the rapid development in this segment, issuers are also focusing on improving credit profiles with better visibility of cash flows and strategic partnerships with OEMs outside of Asia. It is important to remember EVs are not just linked to carmakers, and bonds can also be issued by battery makers, semiconductor suppliers and software and AI providers.

Powering the future

As the world pivots away from fossil fuels and towards cleaner mobility solutions, Asia stands firmly at the heart of the EV revolution. China’s homegrown innovation and manufacturing scale, Japan’s hybrid legacy and South Korea’s battery technology are collectively shaping the global EV landscape.

While the US and Europe scramble to catch up, Asian firms continue to set the pace — not only through product design and affordability, but through supply chain control and technology integration. With EM representing an increasing share of global auto sales, and with credit markets beginning to reflect this structural shift, Asia’s role in the electrified future of transportation may be dominant and definitive.

For credit investors, participating in EV-related bond issuance is no longer just a thematic play, but a strategic allocation to one of this century’s most significant industrial shifts, while offering investors the potential for long-term credit quality improvement and compelling risk-adjusted returns.

EM look back – April

Fixed Income

April was marked by heightened volatility driven by US President Trump's announcement of the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariff initiative.
Asia bore the brunt of the tariffs. China saw tariffs of 34%, which came on top of the previously announced 20% in relation to fentanyl. The situation escalated with the end result that Chinese imports to the US are now subject to a tariff of 145% whilst US imports to China will incur a tariff of 125%. Both sides have since announced exceptions for certain categories. Rates for other Asian countries varied from 46% for Vietnam, 32% for Taiwan and Indonesia, 27% for India, 25% for South Korea, 24% for Japan, and 17% for the Philippines. A pause on the implementation of reciprocal tariffs came on April 9th has been followed by multiple negotiations, with the administration indicating that discussions have advanced with India, Japan and other Asian countries.
EM sovereign debt outperformed corporate credit at the broad index level, driven by idiosyncratic events in the CCC-rated segment.
Ecuadorian bonds surged after Trump ally Daniel Noboa won a key runoff election, while Argentine assets gained on news that the government would ease strict currency controls as part of a US$20 billion IMF loan agreement.
In contrast, the B/CCC-rated corporate energy sector was negatively impacted by declining oil prices.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

EM Credit

The elevated volatility in April led to a broad-based widening across credit rating buckets. Within corporate credit, this environment favoured IG over HY, while short-duration bonds outperformed their longer-duration counterparts.
Regionally, EMEA led performance, supported by declining European yields, whereas Latin America underperformed, reflecting weakness in energy prices.
Financials and real estate emerged as the top-performing sectors, not directly impacted by the Liberation Day announcement, but benefiting from favourable yield and curve dynamics.
Monthly new issuance totalled US$25.5 billion, comprising 75% investment-grade and 25% high-yield debt. Net supply was negative for both segments, resulting in an overall market contraction of $7 billion. Notably, $2.5 billion in "rising star" upgrades exited the high-yield universe. Geographically, 45% of issuance originated from Asia and EMEA, with China dominating Asian supply and investment-grade issuance leading in EMEA.

Monetary policy

Turkey's monetary policy committee raised its one-week repo rate to 46% from 42.5% to reassure investors after domestic turmoil and US tariff uncertainty triggered a sell-off in the lira.
Colombia’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.25%, a surprise move. The central bank’s unexpected decision to cut benchmark rates is consistent with the weaker global growth outlook in the aftermath of US tariffs.
Peru’s central bank left its reference rate unchanged at 4.75%.
Chile’s policymakers held the benchmark interest rate at 5.00% but noted headwinds for domestic activity from weaker global growth. Tariffs and armed conflicts are reinforcing the central bank’s expectations for inflation to fall back in line with its target and clear the way for cuts.

Country-specific news

In Poland, April's flash CPI report shows inflation remains subdued, with overall price growth at 0.4% month on month. This will likely give the central bank the green light to cut policy rates in May, after being on hold at 5.75 since October 2023.
In South Africa, the annual inflation rate fell to 2.7% in April, below the central bank's target range. However, some economists are less convinced rates will be cut due to uncertainty around US trade policies and the rand.
In Ukraine, the US-Ukraine minerals deal was signed on April 30 after more than two months of contentious negotiations and delays. It marks a significant advancement in bilateral ties and improved Kyiv-Washington relations. It also sends a strong signal to Moscow that the window of opportunity for ceasefire talks is narrowing.
Argentina announced a new IMF programme (US$20bn over 4-years), new FX regime, easing of capital controls and tighter fiscal targets. The government will also strengthen the primary surplus to 1.6% of GDP this year (from 1.3%) and to 2.3% of GDP in the medium term, to improve debt sustainability).
PMI data from China weakened significantly, with the manufacturing PMI declining by 1.5% points to 49, the largest decline for 2 years due to a sharp reduction in new orders.
The opposite was the case in the rest of Asia, with not only an increase in new orders but also the new orders to inventory ratio, reflective of the pause in reciprocal tariffs and front loading of purchases before tariffs are eventually implemented.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, signing multiple cooperation agreements with each country, and using the trip to argue against protectionism. The areas covered included security, supply chains, technology, and travel. For many Asian countries, China represents a higher share of exports than the US.

All sources are Bloomberg unless otherwise stated.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed by Muzinich & Co. are as of May 2025 and may change without notice.

Market Data

Credit

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

Source: ICE data platform. as of 30th April 2025. EMGB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index EMCB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIB - ICE BofA High Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHB - ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, Q690 - ICE BofA Custom Emerging Markets Short Duration Index, EMRA - ICE BofA Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIA - ICE BofA High Grade Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHA - ICE BofA High Yield Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index , EMRL - ICE BofA Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIL - The ICE BofA High Grade Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Index, EMHL - ICE BofA High Yield Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus, EMRE - ICE BofA EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMIE - ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, EMHE - ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index,. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in the index. Indices selected provide best proxy for highlighting performance of emerging market corporate bonds. For illustrative purposes only.

Market Data

Yield to worst

References

1.International Energy Agency, as of 23rd April 2024 “The world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with 2024 sales set to reach 17 million”.
2.Fleet News, as of 14th January 2025. “China responsible for two-thirds of global EV registrations.”
3.Global State of EV Manufacturing & Supply Chain: China & Taiwan. Power Arena, as of 20 December 2023.
4.Energy Storage News, as of 25th February 2025 “LG ES to invest US$1.4bn in US stationary storage cell manufacturing.”
5.Bestmag, as of 1st March 2025, “SK IE Technology sign MOU with Gotion to develop battery supply in North America and Europe.”
6.CnEV Post, as of 1st April 2025. “Xiaomi EV delivers over 29,000 in March.”
7.Car News China, as of 18th March 2025. Xiaomi increases 2025 sales target to 350,000 as Beijing plant ramps up production.
8.BYD, as of 18th March 2025. Electric vehicles, matching refuelling speeds.
9.CATL, as of 21st April 2025. Naxtra battery breakthrough & dual-power architecture.
10.AI News, as of 18th February 2025. “Deepseek’s AI dominance expands from EVs to e-scooters in China.”
11.CNN Business, Chinese EV titan BYD annual sales hit US$100 billion eclipsing rival Tesla, as of 25th March 2025.
12.Clean Techno, as of 5th February 2025. “BYD becomes 3rd best-selling auto brand in world!”.
13.Reuters, as of 2nd May, 2025. “Chinese EV makers sell more plugin hybrids in the EU to avoid tariffs, research firm sas.”
14.Ford, as of 17th February 2021. “Ford Europe goes all-in on EVs on road to sustainable profitability; cologne site begins US$1bn transformation.) Jaguar Land Rover, as of 15th February 2021. “Jaguar Land Rover reimagines the future of modern luxury by design.”
15.CNBC, as of 14th June 2024. “China automakers overtake US rivals in sales for the first time, report shows.”
16.Bloomberg, as of 19th September 2024. “Emerging market growth seen bolstering car sales through 2040.”
17.Bloomberg NEF, Southeast Asia EV Market Update: Adoption Picks Up, as of 12th June 2024.
18.ICE Index Platform, as of 30th April 2024. ICE BofA US Corporate Index (C0A0), ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index (ER00), ICE BofA US Cash Pay High Yield (J0A0), ICE BofA European Currency High Yield Index (HP00).
19.ICE Index Platform, as of 30th April 2024. ICE BofA US Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Index (EMCL), ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Index (ADIG).

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Index descriptions

EMGB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index tracks the performance of US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX-G10, all Western European countries and territories of the US and Western European countries.

EMCB - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index tracks the performance of the US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets. Qualifying issuers must have risk exposure to countries other than members of the FX G10, all Western European countries, and territories of the US and Western European countries.

EMIB - ICE BofA High Grade Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA ML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (EMCB) including all securities rated AAA through BBB3, inclusive.

EMHB - ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA ML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (EMCB) including all securities rated BB1 or lower.

Q690 - ICE BofA Custom Emerging Markets Short Duration Index tracks the performance of short-term US dollar and euro denominated emerging markets non-sovereign debt publicly issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets.

EMRA - ICE BofA Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is the subset of the ICE BofAML Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which includes only securities issued by countries associated with the region of Asia, excluding Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

EMHA – The ICE BofA High Yield Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BB1 and lower with a country of risk within the Asia region.

EMIA - The ICE BofA High Grade Asia Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Asia region.

EMRL - ICE BofA Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of The ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities issued by countries associated with the geographical region of Latin America.

EMIL - The ICE BofA High Grade Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Latin America region.

EMHL - ICE BofA High Yield Latin America Emerging Markets Corporate Plus is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated sub-investment grade based on the average of Moody's, S&P and Fitch, and with a country of risk associated with the geographical region of Latin America.

EMRE - ICE BofA EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of The ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities issued by countries associated with the geographical region of Europe, the Middle East and Africa including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

EMIE - ICE BofA High Grade EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

EMHE - ICE BofA High Yield EMEA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities rated BBB3 and higher with a country of risk within the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions.

The MSCI EM Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across emerging market countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalisation in each country.

LDMP - ICE BofA Local Debt Markets Plus Index is designed to track the performance of emerging markets sovereign debt publicly issued and denominated in the issuer's own currency.

J0A0 - The ICE BofA ML US Cash Pay High Yield Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt, currently in a coupon paying period that is publicly issued in the US domestic market.

C0A0 - The ICE BofA ML US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

HE00 - The ICE BofA ML Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of EUR dominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets.

ER00 – The ICE BofA ML Euro Corporate Index tracks the performance of EUR denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the eurobond or Euro member domestic markets.

ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus India Issuers Index (EINH) - is a subset of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index including all securities with India as the country of risk that are rated sub-investment grade based on average of Moody's, S&P and Fitch

ADOL -The ICE BofA Asian Dollar Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers.

ADHY - ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Index tracks the performance of sub-investment grade U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers.

ADIG - ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Index tracks the performance of investment grade U.S. dollar denominated sovereign, quasi-government, corporate, securitized and collateralized debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and eurobond markets by Asian issuers. Qualifying securities have a country of risk classified as an Emerging Markets country that is part of the Asia/Pacific Region.

You cannot invest directly in an index, which also does not take into account trading commissions or costs. Additionally, indices do not include reinvestment of dividends, and the volatility of indices may be materially different over time.

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Muzinich and/or Muzinich & Co. referenced herein is defined as Muzinich & Co., Inc. and its affiliates. Muzinich views and opinions. This material has been produced for information purposes only and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as investment advice. Opinions are as of date of publication and are subject to change without reference or notification to you. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to rise or fall.

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Mel Siew Portfolio Manager

Warren Hyland Portfolio Manager

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